SECOND INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY, USA
26 - 29 June 2001

ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Gertrudes Nadler Lins, Fernando Campello de Souza

A Protocol for the Elicitation of Prior Distributions

Abstract

A practical way of eliciting convex sets of probability measures on a real continuous variable is introduced, one which mathematically defines vagueness and allows for its explicit treatment when it emerges from the activity of making inferences about a parameter based on available evidence through expert opinion. In the setup of the protocol, new indexes are introduced concerning the detailing of the questionnaire.

Keywords. elicitation, uncertainty, prior knowledge, prior distribution, expert opinion, convex sets of probability measures, vagueness

Format. PDF

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Authors addresses:

Gertrudes Nadler Lins
Rua Engenheiro Clovis de Castro, 250, Apto 2401, Parnamirim
52060-180 Recife, PE, Brazil

Fernando Campello de Souza
Rua Neto de Mendonca, 121, Apto. 2301, Tamarineira
52050-100 Recife, Pernambuco
Brasil

E-mail addresses:

Gertrudes Nadler Lins gertie@uol.com.br
Fernando Campello de Souza fmcs@elogica.com.br


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