We analyze communication of uncertainty among individuals as a function of the parties’ preference for modes of communication. We assume that different individuals may prefer precise Numerical probabilities, Ranges of probabilities or Verbal descriptions of probabilities, and consider all possible pairings of communicators and receivers under this classification. We propose a general criterion of optimal conversion among the various modalities, describe several instantiations tailored to fit the special features of the various modalities, and illustrate the efficacy of the proposed procedures with empirical results from several experiments.
Keywords. subjective probability, judgement, verbal probabilities, linguistic probabilities, inter-personal conversion
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Authors addresses:
David V. Budescu
Department of Psychology
University of Illinois
603 E. Daniel Street
Champaign, IL 61820
USA
Tzur Karelitz
1709 Carolyn Dr.
Champaign, IL
61821
USA
E-mail addresses:
| David V. Budescu | dbudescu@s.psych.uiuc.edu |
| Tzur Karelitz | karelitz@s.psych.uiuc.edu |