3rd International Symposium on
Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications


University of Lugano
Lugano, Switzerland
14-17 July 2003


Kurt Weichselberger, Thomas Augustin

On the symbiosis of two concepts of conditional interval probability


This paper argues in favor of the thesis that two different concepts of conditional interval probability are needed, in order to serve the huge variety of tasks conditional probability has in the classical setting of precise probabilities. We compare the commonly used intuitive concept of conditional interval probability with the canonical concept, and see, in particular, that the canonical concept is the appropriate one to generalize the idea of transition kernels to interval probability: only the canonical concept allows reconstruction of the original interval probability from the marginals and conditionals, as well as the powerful formulation of Bayes Theorem.

Keywords. Conditional interval probability, intuitive concept of conditional interval probability, canonical concept of conditional interval probability, conditioning, updating, Theorem of Total Probability, Markov chains, Bayes' Theorem, decision theory

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Authors addresses:

Kurt Weichselberger
Dep. of Statistics
Ludwigstr. 33
D 80539 Muenchen

Thomas Augustin
Ludwigstr. 33
D-80539 Munich

E-mail addresses:

Kurt Weichselberger weichsel@stat.uni-muenchen.de
Thomas Augustin thomas@stat.uni-muenchen.de

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