ACCEPTED PAPERS WITH ABSTRACTS

Igor Kozine, Victor Krymsky

Reducing Uncertainty by Imprecise Judgements on Probability Distributions: Application to System Reliability

Abstract

In this paper the judgement consisting in choosing a function that is believed to dominate the true probability distribution of a continuous random variable. This kind of judgement can significantly increase precision in constructed imprecise previsions of interest, which is of great importance for applications. New formulae for computing system reliability are derived on the basis of the technique developed.

Keywords. Imprecise Probabilities, Probability Density Function, Reliability

Authors addresses:

Igor Kozine
Systems Analysis Department
Building 100
P.O. Box 49, 4000 Roskilde
Denmark

Victor Krymsky
12 K. Marx Street, Ufa, Bashkortostan, 450000

E-mail addresses:

Igor Kozine igor.kozine@risoe.dk
Victor Krymsky kvg@mail.rb.ru


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