CONFERENCE PROGRAM

TUTORIAL DAY (14 July)

8:30 Registration.
9:30 Gert de Cooman. A gentle introduction to imprecise probability models and their behavioral interpretation.
10:45 Coffee Break.
11:05 Jean-Marc Bernard. Imprecise Dirichlet model for multinomial data.
12:20 Lunch.
14:00 Charles F. Manski. Partial identification of probability distributions.
15:15 Fabio G. Cozman. Graph-theoretical models for multivariate modeling with imprecise probabilities.
16:30 Coffee Break.
16:50 Sujoy Mukerji. Imprecise probabilities and ambiguity aversion in economic modeling.
18:05 Free time.


DAY 1 (15 July)

8:30 Welcome by Marco Baggiolini, Chancellor of the University of Lugano.
8:40 Foundations (CHAIR: Gert de Cooman).
  • Renato Pelessoni, Paolo Vicig. Convex imprecise previsions: basic issues and applications.
  • Kurt Weichselberger, Thomas Augustin. On the symbiosis of two concepts of conditional interval probability.
  • Sebastian Maaß. Continuous linear representation of coherent lower previsions.
  • Glenn Shafer, Peter Gillett, Richard Scherl. Subjective probability and lower and upper prevision: a new understanding.

10:00 Coffee break.
10:20 IDM/Model-based inference (CHAIR: Alyson Wilson).
  • Erik Quaeghebeur, Gert de Cooman. Game-theoretic learning using the imprecise Dirichlet model.
  • Jean-Marc Bernard. Analysis of local or asymmetric dependencies in contingency tables using the imprecise Dirichlet model.
  • Marcus Hutter. Robust estimators under the imprecise Dirichlet model.
  • Pablo Ignacio Fierens, Terrence Fine. Towards a chaotic probability model for frequentist probability: the univariate case.

11:40 Posters.
12:40 Lunch.
14:20 (Reliability) applications (CHAIR: Alberto Bernardini).
  • Lev Utkin. A second-order uncertainty model of independent random variables: an example of the stress-strength reliability.
  • Igor Kozine, Victor Krymsky. Reducing uncertainty by imprecise judgements on probability distributions: application to system reliability.
  • Gerd Peschl, H. F. Schweiger. Reliability analysis in geotechnics with finite elements - comparison of probabilistic, stochastic and fuzzy set methods.
(Medical) applications (CHAIR: Joerg Stoye).
  • Minh Ha Duong, Elisabeth Casman, M. Granger Morgan. Bounding analysis of lung cancer risks using imprecise probabilities.
  • Frank Coolen, Ke-Jian Yan. Comparing two groups of lifetime data.
  • Andrea Capotorti. Relevance of qualitative constraints in diagnostic processes.

16:20 Coffee break.
Posters.
17:30 Free time + walk to funicular.
18:45 Meeting for evening tour.

DAY 2 (16 July)

8:40 Decision theory 1 (CHAIR: Charles Manski).
  • Robert Nau. The shape of incomplete preferences.
  • Mark Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph Kadane, Isaac Levi. Extensions of expected utility theory and some limitations of pairwise comparisons.
  • Jean-Yves Jaffray, Meglena Jeleva. How to deal with partially analyzed acts? A proposal.
  • Erio Castagnoli, Fabio Maccheroni, Massimo Marinacci. Expected utility with multiple priors.

10:00 Coffee break.
10:20 Information (CHAIR: Michael Oberguggenberger).
  • George J. Klir. An update on generalized information theory.
  • David V. Budescu , Tzur Karelitz. Inter-personal communication of precise and imprecise subjective probabilities.
Coherence.
  • Veronica Biazzo, Angelo Gilio, Giuseppe Sanfilippo. Some results on generalized coherence of conditional probability bounds.
  • James M. Dickey. Convenient interactive computing for coherent imprecise prevision assessments.

11:40 Posters.
12:40 Lunch.
14:20 Belief functions/Random sets/Capacities/Possibility theory (CHAIRS: Jim Hall & Alessandra Micheletti).
  • Marco Cattaneo. Combining belief functions issued from dependent sources.
  • Jirina Vejnarova. Design of iterative proportional fitting procedure for possibility distributions.
  • Damjan Skulj. Products of capacities derived from additive measures.
  • Elmar Kriegler, Hermann Held. Global mean temperature projections for the 21st century using random sets.
  • Fabio Cuzzolin. Geometry of upper probabilities.
  • Enrique Miranda, Inés Couso, Pedro Gil. Study of the probabilistic information of a random set.
  • Anton Wallner. Bi-elastic neighbourhood models.

16:40 Coffee break.
Posters.
17:40 Patrick Suppes. Application of nonmonotonic upper probabilities to quantum entanglement.
18:40 Free time.
19:15 Meeting for banquet
(banquet talk: - Terrence L. Fine. Theories of probability: some questions about foundations).

DAY 3 (17 July)

8:40 Representations/Independence (CHAIR: Thomas Lukasiewicz).
  • Fabio Cozman. Computing lower expectations with Kuznetsov's independence condition.
  • Serena Doria. Independence with respect to upper and lower conditional probabilities assigned by Hausdorff outer and inner measures.
  • Barbara Vantaggi. Graphical representation of asymmetric graphoid structures.
  • Radim Jirousek. On approximating multidimensional probability distributions by compositional models.

10:00 Coffee break.
10:20 Graphs and computational aspects (CHAIR: Philippe Nivlet).
  • Jose Rocha, Fabio Cozman. Inference in credal networks with branch-and-bound algorithms.
  • Joaquín Abellán, Serafín Moral. Maximum of entropy in credal classification.
  • Darryl Morrell, Wynn Stirling. An extended set-valued Kalman filter.
  • Radu Lazar, Glen Meeden. Exploring imprecise probability assessments based on linear constraints.

11:40 Posters.
12:40 Lunch.
14:20 Fuzzy sets (CHAIR: Hongjun Yan).
  • Andrew Bronevich. The maximal variance of fuzzy interval.
  • Huguette Reynaerts, Michèle Vanmaele. A sensitivity analysis for the pricing of European call options in a binary tree model.
Decision theory 2 (CHAIR: Aron Larsson).
  • Gert de Cooman, Matthias Troffaes. Dynamic programming for discrete-time systems with uncertain gain.
  • Lev Utkin, Thomas Augustin. Decision making with imprecise second-order probabilities.
  • José Pablo Arias, Javier Hernández, Jacinto Martín, Alfonso Suarez-Llorens. Bayesian robustness with quantile loss functions.
  • Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg, Jim Johansson, Aron Larsson. The DecideIT decision tool.
  • Thomas Augustin. On the suboptimality of the generalized Bayes rule and robust Bayesian procedures from the decision theoretic point of view --- a cautionary note on updating imprecise priors.

17:00 Coffee break.
Posters.
18:00 Good bye.