FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Ghent, Belgium
29 June - 2 July 1999

On Tuesday 29 June, the day before the actual ISIPTA symposium begins, there will be three tutorials on some of the fundamental concepts of imprecise probability. These tutorials are aimed primarily at students and others who wish to learn more about the basic ideas, and also at ISIPTA participants who may want to understand the background to some of the papers that will be presented during the symposium, especially the papers on decision making, economic applications and experimental psychology. Unlike the papers presented during ISIPTA, the tutorials will be mainly concerned with very basic concepts and not with advanced or recent research.

The three tutorials will cover the following topics.

1. An introduction to the mathematics of imprecise probabilities

Lecturer

Peter Walley

Topics

definitions of the various mathematical models (upper/lower probabilities and previsions, coherence, Choquet capacities, belief functions, possibility measures, etc.), their mathematical properties, the relationships between them, definitions of upper and lower expectations and conditioning rules.

Duration

approx. 2:00 hours

2. An introduction to Ellsberg's paradox, ambiguity aversion and related topics in experimental psychology

Lecturer

Michael Smithson (Australian National University).

Topics

Ellsberg's experiment, and other empirical work on ambiguity aversion (uncertainty aversion) and related topics. This tutorial will explain the background to the papers on experimental psychology and ambiguity aversion that will be presented at the symposium.

Duration

approx. 1:00 hour

3. Decision theories based on non-additive measures of uncertainty

Lecturer

Jean-Yves Jaffray (Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6)

Topics

non-expected-utility decision theories (i.e., alternatives to maximising expected utility), the motivations behind them, their interpretations, and some basic tools like convex capacities and the Choquet integral. Most of the ISIPTA papers that are concerned with decision making and economic applications are based on the concepts covered in this tutorial.

Duration

approx. 2:00 hours