FOURTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON
IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
July 20-23 2005

ISIPTA'05 ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

Paul Snow

Ordinal Subjective Foundations for Finite-domain Probability Agreement

Abstract

Normative study of probability-agreeing orderings of propositions, much of it rooted in a false but evocative conjecture of Bruno de Finetti, has typically sought to abstract credal rationality claims familiarly made for numerical probabilities. It is now known that some probability-disagreeing orderings, e.g. possibilistic order, syntactically restate probability-agreeing orderings, and so share in any ordinal probabilistic 'rationality.' This paper explores what remains normatively distinctive about subjective probability agreement. A multiset partial ordering, characteristic of all transitive elementary orderings, helps provide succinct, apprehensible necessary and sufficient ordinal conditions for probability agreement.

Keywords. Qualitative probability, transitivity, de Finetti's conjecture, Scott's theorem

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Authors addresses:

P.O. Box 6134
Concord, NH 03303-6134
USA

E-mail addresses:

Paul Snow paulusnix@cs.com


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