Abstract
Two methods are presented for the aggregation of imprecise probabilities elicited from a group of experts in terms of betting rates. In the first method, the experts bet with a common opponent subject to limits on their personal betting stakes, and their individual and aggregate beliefs are represented by confidence-weighted lower and upper probabilities. In the second method, the experts bet directly with each other as a means of reconciling incoherence, and their beliefs are represented by lower and upper risk neutral probabilities-i.e., products of probabilities and relative marginal utilities for money.
Keywords. lower and upper probabilities, confidence-weighted probabilities, expert resolution, consensus, coherence, arbitrage
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Authors addresses:Fuqua School of Business
E-mail addresses:
| Robert F. Nau | robert.nau@duke.edu |
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